Pick #5: Netherlands to beat Denmark

Ok, this one i simple - you either think the Dutch have too much class for the Danes or not. I share the former opinion.

One of the games that formed my view is the friendly Denmark - Brazil. The Danes were struggling to keep up to opponent's level but when Brazil took things seriously the score easily went as up as 3-0. Denmark had a good qualifying campaign, topping a group with Portugal and Norway, but had it not been for some early slips by the Portuguese (such as a ridiculuos home draw vs. Cyprus), it would have been Denmark to go through the play-offs roulette.

The Netherlands seem to be as good as two years ago when they became second on the World Cup. The Dutch had good and bad displays in the friendlies but they are surely closer to the team that trashed N. Ireland 6-0 than the face shown vs Bulgaria (1-2).

These two teams met two years agon on the World Cup and it was again an opening match for both. The Netherlands won fairly easy - 2-0. The only difference I see this time is the Dutch can not afford to slip - beating Denmark is a must for them in a group that features also Germany and Portugal. So:


bet #5
Netherlands - Denmark
Pick: Netherlands to win
Odds: 1.66
Stake: 6 units
bookmaker: bet365

Recommended readings: Group C - Italy or Croatia will join Spain?

This set of recommended reading brings us to Group C, which according to some pundits also deserves to be called the group of death. Spain are World Champions and all has been said about them but the other three teams (Italy, Croatia, Ireland) should not be underestimated. They might not have the class of the Netherlands or posses players like Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo but could "explode" at any point - remember Croatia's 2-1 victory over Germany on EURO'2008?

Having said that, I have no doubts Spain will easily find their way to the knock-out phase - they just have too much quality and might slip once but should secure the top spot in the group without too much trouble. Of the other three, it seems that Italy and Croatia will be contesting the second spot while Ireland could provide an upset but I can't really see them qualifying. The problem is that in order to do that they will need at least 4 points and that implies they would need a win, not just the 0-0 draws that Trapattoni's tactics is producing. More on Ireland here: http://eurofootballpicks.blogspot.be/2012/05/pick-1-ireland-total-goals-under-25.html

Despite missing World Cup Top Goalscorer David Villa, Spain should have no trouble qualifying from Group C. Photo: http://www.asportsnews.com/

As for Croatia, Dave Farrar's team guide for Betfair gives them good chances to qualify. As he states, Croatia is capable of winning the first tie against the Irish. Even if that ends in a draw, the match vs. Italy should be the decisive one and as Dave reminds us, "the Azzurri haven't beaten Croatia since independence and a confident, attack minded team could beat the Italians".  

Croatia team guide: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/team-guides/euro-2012-team-guide-croatia-010612-195.html

Italians are one of the teams that could go all the way or fail miserably in the group stage but you never know which is more likely. The current betting scandal and talks of quitting the tournament alltogether is just complicating the situation. Here's one rather unconventional tip that sees them eliminated at the semifinals: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/group-c/italy/euro-2012-expert-team-guide-italy-by-tony-dorigo-010612-503.html

Croatia and Italy have quite a history between themselves, including a match on the 2002 World Cup.

And, in the already traditional section, here's the whole scenario devised by the colleagues from the Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1208760-euro-2012-predicting-every-game-in-group-c#/articles/1208760-euro-2012-predicting-every-game-in-group-c

They however overlook the fact that Croatia has never lost to Italy (one example -http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/archive/edition=4395/results/matches/match=43950025/report.html) so if you adjust the expected score between the two to a draw, things get really complicated.

It seems like one of the occasions when one ball, one fluke or a random red card can decide it all so make sure your betting approach to Group C is very careful!

Good luck!

Pick #4: Ukraine to qualify from Group D

This pick is motivated by the good price on offer - Ukraine to qualify from Group D is currently available at 2.375 (Sportingbet). A bet on the hosts is always a good bet, especially when they are considered underdogs. In the case of Ukraine, there are a few more arguments that support that view:

- The two "favourites" in Group D are not in their best form - France are still struggling to find their style under Laurent Blanc while England are injury-hit, Rooney's suspended for the first two matches and new manager Hodgson has just stepped in.

- Unlike players from the top leagues, most Ukrainians are not wasted after the long season - most of them play in the domestic championship which is far less intense than - say the English Premier League.

- Pressure is off the co-host - nobody expects them to win the tournament.

- The Ukrainian team is a mix between youth and experience - coach Blokhin can count on veterans like Timoshchuk in midfield, Shevchenko in attack and Shovkovskyi on the goal as well as youngsters like Milevskiy, Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka.

- Finally, there's the Sweden factor - another team that could mix all pre-tournament calculation and turn the group ito a casino roulette. With Sweden on board, one thing is for sure - England will struggle!

Chances are that every game of this Group will be a very close fight and match day form could make the difference between the teams which pretty much will even the chances for all four contenders.

Ukraine faces England in the last match of Group D, which might easily prove to be decisive for both teams.

The whole group is a striking reminiscence of EURO'92 when then-hosts Sweden and future champions Denmark qualified from their group at the expense of ... England and France. Given England's troubles, history might easily repeat itself ...

Having that in mind, odds above 2.20 on Ukraine to qualify look just fine by me and I'm taking that bet gladly ...

bet #4
Group D
Pick: Ukraine - To qualify
Odds: 2.375
Stake: 4 units
bookmaker: Sportingbet 

Pick #3: Russia stage of elimination - 1/4 finals

This is a bet about the progress of Russia at the EURO. As of now, the odds are as follows:

Russia - stage of elimination

	Coefficients
The stage when team is eliminated from the competition	(Sportingbet)
Group stage	2.40
Quarterfinals	2.50
Semifinals	5.75
Final	12.00
Champions	21.00

Russia are clear favourites in Group A and yesterday's friendlies were yet another confirmation - Russia triumphed over Italy by 3-0, while group rivals Czech Rep. lost 1-2 at home to Hungary. Poland and Greece are also below the class of the Russian team and shouldn't be an obstacle for Russia to qualify from the group.

The question is how far could the Russians go? If they qualify, they will face either the first or the second team from Group B, meaning Germany, the Netherlands or Portugal. Chances are that any of these teams would be too much for Russia. Dick Advocaat's men will of course have their chances but the price for Russian elimination at the 1/4 finals of 2.50 (sportingbet) is more than suitable for the risk taken.

 The drop of form of Russia's best player - Anderi Arshavin is signified by the fact that he couldn't keep his spot at Arsenal and had to go for a loan in his previous team Zenit St. Petersburg.

I would expect Russia to qualify comfortably from the group (probably with two wins and a draw) but then face a classy opponent (most probably the Netherlands or Portugal) which would prove to be too much for them. 2.50 is quite a reasonable price for that scenario so I'm taking it gladly.

bet #3
Russia - Stage of elimination
Pick: Quarterfinals
Odds: 2.50
Stake: 4 units
bookmaker: Sportingbet 


Good luck!

Recommended readings: Group B - what to expect from Portugal and the Netherlands?

Labeled the "group of death", group B brings together heavy-weights Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal as well as Denmark. While most experts agree that Germany should have no trouble in qualifying to the 1/4 finals and Denmark are most likely to finish rock bottom, Portugal and the Netherlands are a bit of a puzzle - both teams could easily go all the way but are also able to slip already in the group stage.

Dave Farrar of Betfair provides comprehensive analysis of both teams which is definitely worth reading.

Dave acknowledges Netherland's qualities but remains somewhat sceptical, expecting that they "will do their usual thing of looking great in the group stage and then finding a team which is good enough to beat them in the knockout rounds". Still, he sees the Dutch as "probable semi finalists" and his recommendation is to back Klaas Jan Huntelaar for championship's Top Goalscorer (@20.0).

Dave's Team Guide on the Netherlands: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/team-guides/euro-2012-team-guide-netherlands-310512-195.html

As for Portugal, Dave shares the opinion of pretty much everybody - they "may have the pre-tournament best player in their ranks, but whether they can go on and win the tournament is another matter". His suggestion bettingwise is also quite orthodox - expect many goals in the games involving the Portuguese.

Team Guide on Portugal by Dave Farrar: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/team-guides/euro-2012-team-guide-portugal-310512-195.html

With the match between the Netherlands and Portugal (last in the group B fixtures) very likely to decide who goes through and who goes home, it is maybe useful to remember what happened in the match between the two in 1/8 final of the 2006 World Cup ...

Anyway, let's hope things wouldn't get ugly this time around.

And for change - here's a bit of an unconventional view on how the group might look by Bleacher Report:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1198934-euro-2012-predicting-every-game-in-group-b#/articles/1198934-euro-2012-predicting-every-game-in-group-b

This is what they expect (although the 3 draws predicted for Portugal seem rather odd):

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Germany	3	2	1	0	5	2	3	7
Netherlands	3	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
Portugal	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
Denmark	3	0	1	2	1	4	-3	1

Good luck and have fun reading!

Pick #2: Poland - Greece - Draw at Half-Time

My second pick for the Euro is about the opening match of the championship. Right after the official draw was completed, I was ready to bet that Poland and Greece will offer a low-scoring affair, possibly even ending in a goalless draw. Now, let's explore the game more carefully:

Poland are full of ambitions and would no doubt expect to pass the group phase. The draw which put them in the company of Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic gives them every chance for that. A good result vs. Greece will be crucial to get the hosts to the quarterfinals.

The hosts will count on the Dortmund trio (Lewandowski, Piszczek, Blaszczykowski) to emulate the lively and effective style of the German champions. The trouble is, these (plus Arsenal goalkeeper Szczesny) are pretty much all classy players the Poles have at their disposal.

Poland will count on the Dortmund trio (Lewandowski, Piszczek, Blaszczykowski) to emulate the lively and effective style of the German champions. Photo: Poland Football Blog.


Greece has established itself as a team which knows how to get the desired result and have repeatedly done that over the last few qualification cycles. In most cases, it's away games - remember the 1-0 victory over Ukraine in the play-offs for the 2010 World Cup and the 0-0 draw in Zagreb vs. Croatia in the qualifications. In the qualifications, Greece conceded just 5 goals in 10 matches and kept clean sheets in the two games vs. their main opponent Croatia - a team, which of similar, if not higher class than Poland.

Greeks are managing well when put under pressure and know how to defend. I believe they have the strenght to limit Poland's chances for the whole game and maybe even keep it goalless but let's play it safe and settle for the Half Time bet. Alternatively, you could back the Full Time Draw at 3.2.

The Greeks are effective, although sometimes their style reminds of the movie "300" ... 



bet #2
Poland - Greece
Pick: Draw at Half-Time
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 5 units
bookmaker: bet365

Good luck!

Recommeded readings: Are Poland and Russia going to dominate Group A?

Hosts Poland and EURO'2008 semifinalists Russia are no doubt favourites to qualify from Group A (matches in Warsaw and Wroclaw). Here are two previews that analyse their chances in detail:

Former Man Utd striker Andrei Kanchelskis makes a preview of Russia ahead of EURO'2012. He acknowledges the team isn't "quite as free-flowing and energetic as that of Euro 2008 and the form of the talismanic Andrey Arshavin is a concern". However, Kanchelskis point out Alexander Kerzhakov's "great season" and concludes that "a place in the last eight is perfectly achievable for Russia", something I would agree with …

Kanchelskis's preview for betfair: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/group-a/russia/euro-2012-expert-team-guide-russia-by-290512-497.html

A rather neutral analysis by Dave Farrar on Poland's chances under the title "Are Poland being overrated just because they're the host nation?". Farrar makes some valid arguments about the fair price for Poland qualifying from Group A and reminds us that betting is, above all, about getting the right price …

Farrar's analysis on Poland: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/euro-2012-betting-are-poland-being-overated-just-because-theyre-the-host-nation-260412-195.html

Russia's squad: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/teams/team=57451/squad/index.html

Poland's squad: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/teams/team=109/squad/index.html

Pick #1: Ireland - Total Goals -> Under 2.5

This is a bet on the total goals that Ireland would score on EURO2012. Ireland will face Croatia, Italy and holders Spain and is very unlikely to play more than 3 matches in total. The line is set at 2.5 goals by the bookmakers and I would go for the Under 2.5 option. Why?

Ireland will face holders Spain, as well as Italy and Croatia in Group C. Source: uefa.com

Ireland qualified for the finals after a play-off victory over Estonia with an aggregate score of 5-1 (4-0 win in Tallinn and a 1-1 draw in Dublin). This achievement is a product of the consistent job that Giovanni Trappatoni is doing at the helm of the "Green boys" since 2008. Ireland were very solid in the campaign for the 2010 World Cup, finishing with a record of 4 wins and 6 draws in a group with Italy, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Cyprus, before being eliminated in a controversial play-off by France.

The Irish went all the way this time, securing the tie with Estonia by finishing second in a group with Russia, Slovakia, Armenia, Macedonia and Andorra. Now, it is their record in the group matches that makes me think that "Under 2.5" for team's total goals on the EURO is the right choice.

Trappatoni's Italian background can be seen in the way Ireland plays and the strong focus he puts on defense. The traditional lack of creativity in Irish players doesn't leave him with too much choice - the likes of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane who used to provide some diversity are now well past their zenith. All in all, Ireland under Trapp counts on defense first and the general rule (following the best practices of the Italian school in football) is that 0-0 is never a bad result.

The likes of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane who used to provide some diversity are now well past their zenith. Photo: Sky Sports.


Now back to the results! In 10 group games Ireland scored 15 goals (an average of 1.5 goals per match). However, 9 of those came against the outsiders Andorra and Macedonia. In the six matches vs. contenders Russia, Slovakia and Armenia, Ireland drew 0-0 twice, 1-1 came up once and a 1-0 victory over Armenia in Yerevan was recorded. All in all, the Irish score little and try to concede even less.

Knowing how Trapp approached the game, I would expect him to play it safe in the opening game vs. Croatia. This one may well end up in a goalless draw and I doubt the Irish will have too many chances vs. similarly defense-minded Italians and European and World champions Spain. Chances are Ireland will manage a goal or two at best.

Thus, I believe that Ireland, Total Goals - Under 2.5 is a good bet and the price of 1.72 (bet365) is quite attractive.

bet #1
Ireland Total Goals
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 1.72
Stake: 6 units
bookmaker: bet365

Good luck!

Funny fact: Why the Netherlands will win EURO'2012

The Netherlands are third favourites (trading at around 8.00) to win the European Championship in Poland/Ukraine. But if history matters, "Oranje" should march all the way without troubles. Yesterday's defeat in a fiendly to Bulgaria (1-2) is an exact repetition of a match preceding EURO'88 - again at home, again vs. Bulgarian, again ending 1-2. And yes, you remember right, 1988 was the one and only time the Dutch won the European title.

Bert van Maarvijk is right to wonder whether the result was good or bad for his team. Photo: sportal.bg.

So, if you believe in omens and signs from heaven, bet on the Netherlands!

About this blog

With EURO'2012 in Poland/Ukraine fast approaching, this blog is an attempt to identify, analyse and discuss the best picks (outright and game by game) for the Championship. I will try to provide good analysis and select winning picks and comments are more than welcome!

Odds will be taken from trusted bookmakers and the stakes will be shown in units, 10 units being the maximum stake for a single pick. Overall statistics will be available on the main page (look to the right).

Good luck!