Pick #2: Poland - Greece - Draw at Half-Time

My second pick for the Euro is about the opening match of the championship. Right after the official draw was completed, I was ready to bet that Poland and Greece will offer a low-scoring affair, possibly even ending in a goalless draw. Now, let's explore the game more carefully:

Poland are full of ambitions and would no doubt expect to pass the group phase. The draw which put them in the company of Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic gives them every chance for that. A good result vs. Greece will be crucial to get the hosts to the quarterfinals.

The hosts will count on the Dortmund trio (Lewandowski, Piszczek, Blaszczykowski) to emulate the lively and effective style of the German champions. The trouble is, these (plus Arsenal goalkeeper Szczesny) are pretty much all classy players the Poles have at their disposal.

Poland will count on the Dortmund trio (Lewandowski, Piszczek, Blaszczykowski) to emulate the lively and effective style of the German champions. Photo: Poland Football Blog.


Greece has established itself as a team which knows how to get the desired result and have repeatedly done that over the last few qualification cycles. In most cases, it's away games - remember the 1-0 victory over Ukraine in the play-offs for the 2010 World Cup and the 0-0 draw in Zagreb vs. Croatia in the qualifications. In the qualifications, Greece conceded just 5 goals in 10 matches and kept clean sheets in the two games vs. their main opponent Croatia - a team, which of similar, if not higher class than Poland.

Greeks are managing well when put under pressure and know how to defend. I believe they have the strenght to limit Poland's chances for the whole game and maybe even keep it goalless but let's play it safe and settle for the Half Time bet. Alternatively, you could back the Full Time Draw at 3.2.

The Greeks are effective, although sometimes their style reminds of the movie "300" ... 



bet #2
Poland - Greece
Pick: Draw at Half-Time
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 5 units
bookmaker: bet365

Good luck!

Recommeded readings: Are Poland and Russia going to dominate Group A?

Hosts Poland and EURO'2008 semifinalists Russia are no doubt favourites to qualify from Group A (matches in Warsaw and Wroclaw). Here are two previews that analyse their chances in detail:

Former Man Utd striker Andrei Kanchelskis makes a preview of Russia ahead of EURO'2012. He acknowledges the team isn't "quite as free-flowing and energetic as that of Euro 2008 and the form of the talismanic Andrey Arshavin is a concern". However, Kanchelskis point out Alexander Kerzhakov's "great season" and concludes that "a place in the last eight is perfectly achievable for Russia", something I would agree with …

Kanchelskis's preview for betfair: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/group-a/russia/euro-2012-expert-team-guide-russia-by-290512-497.html

A rather neutral analysis by Dave Farrar on Poland's chances under the title "Are Poland being overrated just because they're the host nation?". Farrar makes some valid arguments about the fair price for Poland qualifying from Group A and reminds us that betting is, above all, about getting the right price …

Farrar's analysis on Poland: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/euro-2012-betting-are-poland-being-overated-just-because-theyre-the-host-nation-260412-195.html

Russia's squad: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/teams/team=57451/squad/index.html

Poland's squad: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/teams/team=109/squad/index.html

Pick #1: Ireland - Total Goals -> Under 2.5

This is a bet on the total goals that Ireland would score on EURO2012. Ireland will face Croatia, Italy and holders Spain and is very unlikely to play more than 3 matches in total. The line is set at 2.5 goals by the bookmakers and I would go for the Under 2.5 option. Why?

Ireland will face holders Spain, as well as Italy and Croatia in Group C. Source: uefa.com

Ireland qualified for the finals after a play-off victory over Estonia with an aggregate score of 5-1 (4-0 win in Tallinn and a 1-1 draw in Dublin). This achievement is a product of the consistent job that Giovanni Trappatoni is doing at the helm of the "Green boys" since 2008. Ireland were very solid in the campaign for the 2010 World Cup, finishing with a record of 4 wins and 6 draws in a group with Italy, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Cyprus, before being eliminated in a controversial play-off by France.

The Irish went all the way this time, securing the tie with Estonia by finishing second in a group with Russia, Slovakia, Armenia, Macedonia and Andorra. Now, it is their record in the group matches that makes me think that "Under 2.5" for team's total goals on the EURO is the right choice.

Trappatoni's Italian background can be seen in the way Ireland plays and the strong focus he puts on defense. The traditional lack of creativity in Irish players doesn't leave him with too much choice - the likes of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane who used to provide some diversity are now well past their zenith. All in all, Ireland under Trapp counts on defense first and the general rule (following the best practices of the Italian school in football) is that 0-0 is never a bad result.

The likes of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane who used to provide some diversity are now well past their zenith. Photo: Sky Sports.


Now back to the results! In 10 group games Ireland scored 15 goals (an average of 1.5 goals per match). However, 9 of those came against the outsiders Andorra and Macedonia. In the six matches vs. contenders Russia, Slovakia and Armenia, Ireland drew 0-0 twice, 1-1 came up once and a 1-0 victory over Armenia in Yerevan was recorded. All in all, the Irish score little and try to concede even less.

Knowing how Trapp approached the game, I would expect him to play it safe in the opening game vs. Croatia. This one may well end up in a goalless draw and I doubt the Irish will have too many chances vs. similarly defense-minded Italians and European and World champions Spain. Chances are Ireland will manage a goal or two at best.

Thus, I believe that Ireland, Total Goals - Under 2.5 is a good bet and the price of 1.72 (bet365) is quite attractive.

bet #1
Ireland Total Goals
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 1.72
Stake: 6 units
bookmaker: bet365

Good luck!

Funny fact: Why the Netherlands will win EURO'2012

The Netherlands are third favourites (trading at around 8.00) to win the European Championship in Poland/Ukraine. But if history matters, "Oranje" should march all the way without troubles. Yesterday's defeat in a fiendly to Bulgaria (1-2) is an exact repetition of a match preceding EURO'88 - again at home, again vs. Bulgarian, again ending 1-2. And yes, you remember right, 1988 was the one and only time the Dutch won the European title.

Bert van Maarvijk is right to wonder whether the result was good or bad for his team. Photo: sportal.bg.

So, if you believe in omens and signs from heaven, bet on the Netherlands!

About this blog

With EURO'2012 in Poland/Ukraine fast approaching, this blog is an attempt to identify, analyse and discuss the best picks (outright and game by game) for the Championship. I will try to provide good analysis and select winning picks and comments are more than welcome!

Odds will be taken from trusted bookmakers and the stakes will be shown in units, 10 units being the maximum stake for a single pick. Overall statistics will be available on the main page (look to the right).

Good luck!