Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Pick #1: Ireland - Total Goals -> Under 2.5

This is a bet on the total goals that Ireland would score on EURO2012. Ireland will face Croatia, Italy and holders Spain and is very unlikely to play more than 3 matches in total. The line is set at 2.5 goals by the bookmakers and I would go for the Under 2.5 option. Why?


Ireland will face holders Spain, as well as Italy and Croatia in Group C. Source: uefa.com

Ireland qualified for the finals after a play-off victory over Estonia with an aggregate score of 5-1 (4-0 win in Tallinn and a 1-1 draw in Dublin). This achievement is a product of the consistent job that Giovanni Trappatoni is doing at the helm of the "Green boys" since 2008. Ireland were very solid in the campaign for the 2010 World Cup, finishing with a record of 4 wins and 6 draws in a group with Italy, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Cyprus, before being eliminated in a controversial play-off by France.

The Irish went all the way this time, securing the tie with Estonia by finishing second in a group with Russia, Slovakia, Armenia, Macedonia and Andorra. Now, it is their record in the group matches that makes me think that "Under 2.5" for team's total goals on the EURO is the right choice.

Trappatoni's Italian background can be seen in the way Ireland plays and the strong focus he puts on defense. The traditional lack of creativity in Irish players doesn't leave him with too much choice - the likes of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane who used to provide some diversity are now well past their zenith. All in all, Ireland under Trapp counts on defense first and the general rule (following the best practices of the Italian school in football) is that 0-0 is never a bad result.


The likes of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane who used to provide some diversity are now well past their zenith. Photo: Sky Sports.


Now back to the results! In 10 group games Ireland scored 15 goals (an average of 1.5 goals per match). However, 9 of those came against the outsiders Andorra and Macedonia. In the six matches vs. contenders Russia, Slovakia and Armenia, Ireland drew 0-0 twice, 1-1 came up once and a 1-0 victory over Armenia in Yerevan was recorded. All in all, the Irish score little and try to concede even less.

Knowing how Trapp approached the game, I would expect him to play it safe in the opening game vs. Croatia. This one may well end up in a goalless draw and I doubt the Irish will have too many chances vs. similarly defense-minded Italians and European and World champions Spain. Chances are Ireland will manage a goal or two at best.

Thus, I believe that Ireland, Total Goals - Under 2.5 is a good bet and the price of 1.72 (bet365) is quite attractive.

bet #1
Ireland Total Goals
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 1.72
Stake: 6 units
bookmaker: bet365

Good luck!

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