Thursday, 7 June 2012

Recommended readings: Group C - Italy or Croatia will join Spain?

This set of recommended reading brings us to Group C, which according to some pundits also deserves to be called the group of death. Spain are World Champions and all has been said about them but the other three teams (Italy, Croatia, Ireland) should not be underestimated. They might not have the class of the Netherlands or posses players like Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo but could "explode" at any point - remember Croatia's 2-1 victory over Germany on EURO'2008?

Having said that, I have no doubts Spain will easily find their way to the knock-out phase - they just have too much quality and might slip once but should secure the top spot in the group without too much trouble. Of the other three, it seems that Italy and Croatia will be contesting the second spot while Ireland could provide an upset but I can't really see them qualifying. The problem is that in order to do that they will need at least 4 points and that implies they would need a win, not just the 0-0 draws that Trapattoni's tactics is producing. More on Ireland here: http://eurofootballpicks.blogspot.be/2012/05/pick-1-ireland-total-goals-under-25.html


Despite missing World Cup Top Goalscorer David Villa, Spain should have no trouble qualifying from Group C. Photo: http://www.asportsnews.com/

As for Croatia, Dave Farrar's team guide for Betfair gives them good chances to qualify. As he states, Croatia is capable of winning the first tie against the Irish. Even if that ends in a draw, the match vs. Italy should be the decisive one and as Dave reminds us, "the Azzurri haven't beaten Croatia since independence and a confident, attack minded team could beat the Italians".  


Italians are one of the teams that could go all the way or fail miserably in the group stage but you never know which is more likely. The current betting scandal and talks of quitting the tournament alltogether is just complicating the situation. Here's one rather unconventional tip that sees them eliminated at the semifinals: http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/group-c/italy/euro-2012-expert-team-guide-italy-by-tony-dorigo-010612-503.html


Croatia and Italy have quite a history between themselves, including a match on the 2002 World Cup.

And, in the already traditional section, here's the whole scenario devised by the colleagues from the Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1208760-euro-2012-predicting-every-game-in-group-c#/articles/1208760-euro-2012-predicting-every-game-in-group-c

They however overlook the fact that Croatia has never lost to Italy (one example -http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/archive/edition=4395/results/matches/match=43950025/report.html) so if you adjust the expected score between the two to a draw, things get really complicated.

It seems like one of the occasions when one ball, one fluke or a random red card can decide it all so make sure your betting approach to Group C is very careful!

Good luck!

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